Measles is a highly contagious viral disease that affects individuals of all age groups. It is caused by the Measles virus (MeV) and is characterized by symptoms such as fever, cough, runny nose, conjunctivitis, and a distinct red rash. Measles can lead to severe complications and even death, particularly among vulnerable populations such as young children and those with weakened immune systems.
Historical Context and Discovery: Measles has afflicted human populations for centuries. Its first description was provided by a Persian physician named Rhazes in the 10th century. However, the global impact of the disease became more evident during the 18th and 19th centuries, when outbreaks occurred across various continents and resulted in high rates of illness and death. In the 19th century, measles was identified as a distinct disease separate from other childhood rashes, and a vaccine was introduced in the 1960s.
Prevalence: Measles is present throughout the world, although its frequency varies across different regions. Prior to the implementation of widespread vaccination campaigns, measles was endemic in most countries and regularly caused outbreaks. However, significant progress has been made in reducing measles transmission and associated mortality through vaccination efforts.
Transmission Routes: Measles is primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes. The virus can survive on surfaces and in the air for up to two hours, which contributes to its highly contagious nature. It is estimated that 90% of susceptible individuals who come into close contact with an infected person will contract the disease.
Affected Populations: Measles can affect individuals of all ages who have not been vaccinated or have not previously had the disease. However, infants and young children are particularly vulnerable to experiencing severe complications. Unvaccinated individuals, malnourished children, and those with weakened immune systems are at a higher risk of developing severe cases of measles.
Key Statistics: 1. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were an estimated 207,500 global deaths related to measles in 2019. 2. Measles cases have been declining worldwide due to vaccination efforts, but from 2016 to 2019, there was a resurgence, including significant outbreaks in several countries. 3. In 2020, disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in routine immunization coverage, potentially impacting efforts to control measles.
Major Risk Factors: 1. Lack of vaccination: The most significant risk factor for measles transmission is the absence of immunization. Unvaccinated individuals are more likely to contract the disease and contribute to its spread. 2. Crowded living conditions: Measles thrives in areas with high population density, facilitating the spread of the virus among individuals in close proximity. 3. International travel: People traveling to or from areas where measles is common can introduce the virus to susceptible populations, increasing the likelihood of outbreaks. 4. Poor healthcare infrastructure: Countries with limited access to healthcare and vaccination programs face a higher risk of experiencing measles outbreaks and related complications.
Impact on Different Regions and Populations: The incidence and prevalence of measles vary across regions due to differences in vaccination coverage, healthcare infrastructure, and disease surveillance. Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia have historically had the highest burden of measles cases, while high-income regions with high vaccination rates have seen significantly lower incidence rates. However, even developed countries can experience measles outbreaks when vaccination rates decrease.
In conclusion, despite the availability of effective vaccines, measles remains a significant global health concern. It is crucial to improve vaccination coverage, promptly detect outbreaks, and implement effective management strategies to control measles transmission, prevent outbreaks, and safeguard vulnerable populations.

Download Data(下载数据)

Seasonal Patterns:
The data on monthly cases of measles in mainland China before June 2023 reveals a clear seasonal pattern. The number of cases is consistently lowest during the summer months (June, July, and August) and gradually increases from September onwards. The peak of the outbreak occurs during the winter months (December, January, and February), followed by a gradual decrease in the spring months (March, April, and May).
Peak and Trough Periods:
Measles cases in mainland China peak during the winter months, specifically from December to February, when the number of cases is highest. Conversely, the summer months of June, July, and August experience the lowest number of cases.
Overall Trends:
Analyzing the overall trends, there is a general upward trend in measles cases in mainland China from September to February, followed by a decline from March to August. It is important to note, however, that the number of cases has remained relatively low in recent years with occasional fluctuations.
Discussion:
The observed seasonal pattern in the data suggests that measles transmission in mainland China is influenced by factors such as climate and human behavior. The peak during the winter months can be attributed to increased indoor crowding and closer contact among individuals, facilitating the spread of the virus. On the other hand, the trough during the summer months may be influenced by improved ventilation, increased outdoor activities, and the impact of vaccination campaigns targeting schools before summer break.
It is worth noting that the number of measles cases significantly declined after 2013, indicating successful control measures and increased vaccination coverage. However, there are still fluctuations in the number of cases, emphasizing the need for continuous surveillance and efforts to maintain high vaccination coverage in order to prevent outbreaks.
Overall, the analysis of the provided data emphasizes the importance of understanding the seasonal patterns, peak and trough periods, and overall trends in measles cases in mainland China. This knowledge can inform targeted interventions and control strategies to effectively prevent and reduce the incidence of this vaccine-preventable disease.